The Middle East oil crisis is exposing with painful clarity the fragility of the global energy supply chains that modern economies depend upon. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the shutdown of Iraqi oil ports, the evacuation of Oman’s Mina Al Fahal terminal, and attacks on fuel storage in Bahrain have revealed how quickly a military conflict can unravel decades of infrastructure investment and supply chain development. Oil prices near $100 a barrel are the market’s verdict on that fragility.
Iran struck all these targets Thursday as part of an expanding campaign against Gulf energy infrastructure. The Thai-registered Mayuree Naree was hit near the Strait of Hormuz, with three crew members believed trapped. Iraq halted all crude exports and Oman cleared its main terminal of vessels. Bahrain placed residents under shelter-in-place orders.
Brent crude gained 9% Thursday to touch $100.29 before settling at $98, still up about 6%. West Texas Intermediate rose 8.6% to $94.75. Oil began the year at approximately $60 and hit a peak of $119 this week. The Strait of Hormuz, carrying roughly a fifth of global seaborne oil and gas, has been closed since February 28.
The IEA released 400 million barrels of emergency crude in a record coordinated action by 32 member nations. The US pledged 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Despite these interventions, the underlying fragility of the supply chain remains unaddressed. Iran’s military warned of $200 oil.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 per barrel. Deutsche Bank warned of stagflation risks. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi declined 1.2%, and European gas climbed 7.7%.